What This Keynote Delivers:
- A clear-eyed assessment of the current landscape of geopolitics
- Historical background for struggle between major powers and changes in power
- Understanding how technology and AI are changing the balance of power
- Strategic frameworks for making decisions when things are uncertain
- A serious alternative to both being complacent and giving up
- Clarity instead of illusions
Geopolitics: From Nerd Topic to “Full-Contact Sport”
A young minister of economic affairs steps into office in a caretaker role after a coalition collapse. Six weeks later, he decides to protect a national technology company. Within days, global powers react, supply chains break down, and entire industries are thrown into turmoil. Not because war was declared, but because power, territory, and technology are being renegotiated. That is exactly what happened in the Netherlands in June 2025. Welcome to geopolitics in the here and now. What was once confined to academic back rooms has become headline news.
New Era of Uncertainty Calls for New Security Policy and Crisis Management
Forget about the world after the Cold War. Geopolitics, the rules-based international order the United States helped build after 1945 is eroding in real time. Treaties carry less weight, institutions have less authority, norms less constraint. The question confronting Washington and others is no longer whether global order is changing, but how unstable the transition will be, and whether the United States can shape what comes next.
Why the Order After 1945 Is Falling Apart
The postwar system was based on American might, leadership in institutions, and the idea that rules would eventually bring interests together. That assumption no longer holds. Strategic competition has replaced cooperation as the organizing principle of international politics. Power now trumps process; sovereignty overrides obligation. Stability, where it exists at all, is provisional and transactional.
From Rules to Spheres of Influence
Is the current moment historically unprecedented, or historically familiar? The evidence points to the latter. Geopolitics 2026: The world is drifting toward a system in which great powers assert regional dominance, test red lines, and expect deference within their perceived spheres of influence. Smaller states are not disappearing, but their room for maneuvering is shrinking.
Bismarck’s Logic in a Nuclear Age
This keynote traces today’s dynamics back to the 19th-century balance-of-power politics associated with Otto von Bismarck: complex alliances, strategic restraint, and deterrence grounded not in shared values but in mutual vulnerability. Then, as now, peace depended less on norms than on equilibrium. History does not repeat itself, but it does, often, return with higher stakes.
A New Cold War – or Something Less Stable
Is the United States locked into a new Cold War with China? In some respects, yes: technological decoupling, military competition, and ideological rivalry increasingly define the relationship. But unlike the Cold War, today’s system lacks clear blocs, agreed-upon rules, or reliable crisis-management mechanisms. That makes it more fluid, and more dangerous.
Deal-Making and the Erosion of Strategic Doctrine
An alternative future may be even more unsettling: a world governed less by strategy than by transaction. In such a system, influence is negotiated deal by deal, and spheres of power are tacitly acknowledged rather than formally defined. The reasoning of today’s geopolitics is straightforward and harsh: if something can’t be enforced, it won’t be respected.
Geopolitics as a Form of Narrative Warfare
Theory of geopolitics was used for political purposes during the Cold War, especially to get people to support the fight against what they thought was a communist menace. Simplified danger narratives are once more influencing policy discussions today. Slogans make things seem simpler; geopolitics is used to justify power instead of to grasp what’s really going on.
Alliances to Ad Hoc Coalitions – Flexibility Without Dependability
Traditional alliances are still around, but their roles are evolving. The United States is working more and more through transitory, issue-based, and interest-driven alliances. In defense, trade, technology, and climate policy, alignment is not permanent and can be changed. This flexibility lets people take action, but it also makes things less predictable.
Digital Power and Strategic Edge
Digitalization is not just a change in the economy; it is also a change in the world. Having control over data, platforms, standards, and infrastructure now gives you direct strategic power. Supply chains are now security assets, and relying on technology is a national weakness.
The Future of Power and Artificial Intelligence
It’s no longer a guess that artificial intelligence is real. It is shaping military planning, intelligence analysis, economic productivity, and information control. The competition over AI leadership, primarily between the United States and China, will influence not only economic outcomes but the future balance of power itself. Falling behind is not a commercial risk alone; it is a strategic one.
Today’s Geopolitics: No Grand Design
The uncomfortable conclusion is this: there is no new stable world order waiting to emerge. No equilibrium that can be engineered from the top down. The coming years are likely to be defined by transactional politics, instinctive, short-term, and often incoherent. The problem for U.S. politicians isn’t going back to the past; it’s running the government well in the face of constant unpredictability.
Why This Keynote Is Important for People Who Make Decisions
This is not a call to panic or a defense of a system that is slowly falling apart. It is a strategic reality check for politicians, military commanders, businesspeople, and analysts who have to work in a world where assumptions break down quicker than they can be fixed.
Why is Cherno Jobatey the ideal choice for a geopolitics keynote?
Because Cherno Jobatey makes geopolitics readable, understandable, and relevant, rather than explaining it like a textbook. As a journalist, he has analyzed current events for many years, placing them in context and pulling back the curtain on the power mechanisms of Berlin, Brussels, Rome, London, and Washington.
In his geopolitics keynote, he combines journalistic depth with stage presence, analysis with storytelling, and complexity with clarity. This is not an abstract lecture on uncertainty, crisis management, or risk management, but a practical orientation guide for a world in which political decisions have increasingly direct economic consequences.
Praise of Cherno Jobatey’s work:
- “Thank you for moderating the event and particular thanks for the deft handling of some tricky questioners. It was a pleasure to see you again!” Bill Gates
- “Whether on big stages in the US or at conferences in Europe, Jobatey manages to explain complex topics in an understandable, exciting way and with a wink.” BILD Europe’s biggest newspaper.
- “Charming Cherno” BUNTE Germany’s People Magazine
- “Cherno Jobatey’s substance, his perspectives, and his ability to captivate audiences make him a prime example of the CSP title,” Jaime Nolan, CEO and President of the National Speakers Association.
- “He rocked the stage, adding a touch of happening to the serious business conference” Meedia
- “His winning smile is part of the show” Express
- “It was an absolute pleasure to have you as the moderator of the launch and elevating this global celebration with your positive energy!” Emma Hietaniemi United Nations
- “Hi Cherno, you created a great feeling on stage. Well done! Prof. Astrid Linder Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute via LinkedIn
- ”Very good, informed and lively moderation of a good panel. It was a good evening” B. Buschhausen Head of Public Affairs Instinctif Partners via LinkedIn
- “Cherno Jobatey combines his extensive knowledge with pure entertainment. And he does it with astonishing ease” BILD Europe’s biggest Newspaper
- “You asked tough questions with a smile and the audience obviously enjoyed your way of moderating – combining serious content with good entertainment. Whenever the discussion went out of focus, you brought it straight back to the right political context. Impressive how you handled such a large audience.”
Sean-François Bureau, Assistant Secretary General NATO
Frequently Asked Questions about Cherno’s Geopolitics Keynote
Geopolitics explains how international politics is shaped by the interaction of power, geography, technology, and interests. It also focuses on how states, alliances, and increasingly companies preserve their ability to act.
For decision-makers, geopolitics is not a theory, it is a tangible reality. Geopolitical shifts directly affect supply chains, markets, investments, technology access, and regulation.
Modern geopolitics goes far beyond military or border issues. Today, it also includes core economic and technological dimensions:
- Technology and digitalisation (semiconductors, data, platforms)
- Artificial intelligence as a power and productivity factor
- Dependencies within global supply chains
- Spheres of influence, sanctions, and trade conflicts
- Short-term political decisions replacing long-term stability
Because geopolitics already shape your everyday reality, often unnoticed. Careers, consumption, investments, and business models depend on supply chains, markets, capital flows, and technological dependencies.
Political or economic decisions can trigger immediate shocks to entire industries. Constant crisis management and risk management are no longer optional, they are essential.
Cherno Jobatey talks about changes in global power, political risks, and new technologies in his geopolitics keynote. He also shows how these things affect business strategy, leadership, crisis management, and risk management directly.
The keynote looks at the current state of geopolitics:
- The breakdown of the rules-based world order
- The rise of new power structures
- The increasing importance of technology, digitalization, and AI
All of these are directly related to business strategy, crisis management, and risk management.
It was rules, institutions, and shared values that made up the order after the war. Today, different groups with different goals run world politics. Treaties lose their power to bind, and institutions lose their power to rule. What once guaranteed stability is now negotiable.
Partially. While power blocks are re-emerging, the world is far more fragmented. Deals, short-term goals, and reliance on technology now shape global politics along with ideology.
As a result, corporate strategy, crisis management, and risk management become more complex.
Spheres of influence are returning, often informally and without clear rules. Big countries protect their own interests, while smaller ones are under pressure. Strategic factors are becoming more important than moral ones.
Cherno Jobatey draws parallels to 19th-century power balance politics. Peace was not created by values, but by fragile interest-based equilibrium. Crisis management and risk management are now also parts of security policy that are very important to business strategy. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme a lot, and sometimes it’s dangerous.
Digital infrastructure, data, and artificial intelligence are critical to productivity, military capability, and economic dominance. Falling behind technologically means losing not only markets, but political influence.
Yes. AI increasingly determines competitiveness, security, and control over information. The global AI race has already become a power struggle, with direct consequences for states, economies, and societies.
No. The key message is clear: do not rely on grand models or assumed stability. The coming years will be dominated by transactional politics, uncertainty, and short-term deals.
The keynote mixes geopolitical analysis with real-world case studies to give decision-makers useful information, especially for corporate strategy, crisis management, and risk management.
Its priority is strategic clarity for decision-makers, not ideology or academic theory. Cherno Jobatey adds insights from capitals all over the world, first-hand experience, and compelling storytelling.
Yes. Content, depth, and examples can be tailored to industry, audience, and event format.
The keynote is available in German and English?
The geopolitics keynote can be booked as a live keynote, virtual keynote, or hybrid format, ideal for conferences, executive events, and strategy days.
Because old certainties no longer hold. Relying on outdated world-order models for strategy, crisis management, or risk management leads to strategic misjudgments.
Clarity instead of illusion. The keynote does not reassure, it orients. It delivers a realistic view of the world, introduces new thinking models, and provides strategic impulses for decision-making in an unstable geopolitical environment.